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| #531039 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 01.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012 SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS WANED. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR CONVECTION TO FLUCTUATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK AND DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES. EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS NOTED IN VARIOUS WATER VAPOR PRODUCTS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.2/32 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD....WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 H. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFDL MODEL TRACK THAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLIER DUE TO IT DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAN FORECAST. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT PROCESS ABATES... CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER SINCE THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A VERY ROBUST CIRCULATION AS NOTED IN RECENT SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE WARMER CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 12.6N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 13.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 13.6N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 14.2N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 14.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 15.8N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 16.8N 74.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
