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| #531139 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 02.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012 AFTER LOOKING VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MARGINALLY BETTER STRUCTURE WITH EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING. NOAA BUOY 41040...TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...REPORTED 31 KT WINDS. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN THE CYCLONE...SCHEDULED FOR 1800 UTC. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER THE 1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM TRINIDAD SHOWED A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY JET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LATITUDE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SWIFT 17 KT. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED. THIS IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 13.0N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 13.4N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 13.8N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 14.1N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 14.7N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 15.7N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 17.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 18.5N 82.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
