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| #531446 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 03.Aug.2012) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 0900 UTC FRI AUG 03 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 60.7W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 60.7W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.4N 66.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.9N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 72.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 18.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 86.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 60.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
