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| #531470 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:50 AM 03.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 800 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012 ...WIND GUST TO 63 MPH IN SAINT LUCIA AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NEARBY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 61.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ RADAR FROM GUADELOUPE AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED OVER OR VERY NEAR SAINT LUCIA DURING THE PAST HOUR. AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ST. LUCIA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...102 KM/H...AND BARBADOS JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...68 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.49 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
