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| #53162 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 23.Oct.2005) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...WILMA DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF YUCATAN...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WEST OF SAN FELIPE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 370 MILES... 600 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT... DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH |
