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| #531647 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 03.Aug.2012) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 0300 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF JAMAICA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 65.6W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 65.6W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 65.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
