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#531695 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 04.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012 ...ERNESTO A LITTLE STRONGER...INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 67.2W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE WEEKEND AND PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |