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| #5317 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 PM 15.Aug.2004) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004 EARL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH FAIRLY SYMMETRIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAD DIFFICULTY CLOSING OFF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EARLIER TODAY. THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT AIRCRAFT FIX IN A FEW HOURS BEFORE CHANGING THE INTENSITY. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE AHEAD OF THE STORM SO STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED ...ESPECIALLY IF EARL SLOWS ITS FORWARD SPEED SOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE GIVEN BY SHIPS...WITH AN INTERRUPTION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO PREVENT MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE U.K. MET DOES SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY DAYS 4-5. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS HAS DIFFICULTY TRACKING EARL AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT SUGGESTS A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT ON THIS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 12.3N 63.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.2N 67.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 14.2N 71.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 15.2N 75.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 79.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 84.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 20.0N 89.0W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 92.0W 80 KT...OVER WATER |
