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| #531745 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 04.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012 ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ERNESTO WEAKER DESPITE THE WELL ORGANIZED SATELLITE PRESENTATION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 68.7W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY EVENING AND THE MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
