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| #531817 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 04.Aug.2012) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012 2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.7W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.7W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 31.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 33.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 35.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.6N 38.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.1N 41.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 47.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 31.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
