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| #531889 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 AM 05.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 200 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 73.7W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA OVERNIGHT...MOVE SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
