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| #531924 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 05.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012 ...RAINS FROM ERNESTO NOW REACHING JAMAICA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 74.8W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY. SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
