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| #532048 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 05.Aug.2012) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 2100 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND CAYMAN * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 78.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 78.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 77.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.5N 80.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.7N 84.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.5N 86.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 97.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 78.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
