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| #532052 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 05.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012 ASIDE FROM A SMALL BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN DISORGANIZED PATCHES WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DRY AIR IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE STORM...ALONG WITH SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ABATING RECENTLY AND...ASSUMING THAT ERNESTO WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...SOME STRENGTHENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. ONCE AGAIN...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...THIS SEEMS DUBIOUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST HFIP INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THE ANTICIPATED DECELERATION IS FINALLY OCCURRING AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/17. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A TROUGH DIPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ERNESTO TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS WELL AS THE LATEST ECMWF...ARE SOUTH OF THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.3N 78.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 15.5N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.7N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 17.5N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 19.0N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 21.5N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS |
