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| #532142 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 05.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO MOVING SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 79.7W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND CAYMAN * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE ISLAND. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
