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| #532157 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:44 AM 06.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 200 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012 ...ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 79.9W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND CAYMAN * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS MONDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN GRAND CAYMAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE ISLAND. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
