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| #532181 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 06.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012 500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012 FLORENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AS DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN THE DUST PRODUCT FROM THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND...HAS BECOME WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO FALL AND SUPPORT DOWNGRADING FLORENCE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE BY THEN. THE NEW NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR AS SOON AS LATER TODAY IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DUE WEST BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE...270/10. THE MODELS AGREE THAT FLORENCE...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF RUN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 16.2N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.6N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 18.1N 51.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z 20.4N 58.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z 23.5N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
