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| #532185 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 06.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 80.5W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND CAYMAN * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER * THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY... WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
