Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #532189 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 06.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012 DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO BE TILTED NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT...AND THIS STRUCTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS STILL SHOW ERNESTO APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THAT IS POSSIBLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT SHOWN EXPLICITLY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATER IN THE PERIOD SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF TH DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT USING GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THEREFORE THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED FURTHER...WITH A LONG-TERM ESTIMATE OF 275/10. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS STILL A LITTLE NORTH OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.4N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.2N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 17.1N 86.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 17.7N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0600Z 18.7N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST 96H 10/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST 120H 11/0600Z 19.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
