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| #532235 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 06.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012 1100 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012 ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS NOW...AND ALL THAT REMAINS OF FLORENCE IS AN EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY...FLORENCE IS ASSESSED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. A SURROUNDING DRY/STABLE AIR MASS...COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS OR LESS. THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...BUT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF FORWARD MOTION...275/13. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 16.4N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.5N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 16.9N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 17.6N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 18.5N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z 21.1N 60.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z 24.2N 66.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
