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| #532547 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:05 PM 07.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 700 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA......LANDFALL EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 87.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * COZUMEL * COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA * CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. RECENT REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND BELIZE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
