Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #532596 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 08.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 100 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012 ...ERNESTO MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 88.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * COZUMEL * COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA * CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING. RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR WHERE ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS |
