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| #532634 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 08.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012 ...ERNESTO BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 89.0W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO TULUM. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF TULUM HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS * COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA * CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO * NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING. RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ERNESTO COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
