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| #532689 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 08.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1000 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012 ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS AND...ASSUMING ROUGHLY AN EXPONENTIAL DECAY RATE AFTER LANDFALL...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...AND ASSUMING THE CENTER IS ABLE TO MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE CYCLONE COULD RE-INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR THE TRACK TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...IN WHICH CASE THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OR LESS. CENTER FIXES USING RADAR DATA FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF BELIZE AND MEXICO ALONG WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ERNESTO IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 260/13. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A WESTWARD TRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFS MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION... PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO. BASED ON THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH SHOWS LESS RESTRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 18.7N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 18.7N 92.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 18.6N 94.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0000Z 18.5N 96.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/1200Z 18.4N 97.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
