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| #53274 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 AM 23.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 WILMA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KT... WHICH IS A MERE PREVIEW OF THE GRADUAL ACCELERATION EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED ROUGHLY OVER IOWA IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN SOME AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHICH WILL PUSH WILMA NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING PACE. THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE FLORIDA LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA... BUT STILL WITH SOME VARIATION IN BOTH THE SPEED AND PATH. THE GFDL IS THE SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION... AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE PERHAPS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH WITH NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN THE TIMING... AND IT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD... AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE LAST RECON FIX AT ABOUT 12Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB... WHICH HAD REMAINED STEADY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS ALMOST IN THE CENTER AT THIS HOUR AND WILL PROVIDE UPDATES ON THE PRESSURE AND WINDS. FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KT GIVEN THE LIMITED CHANGES IN STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90 KT. INNER CORE CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION DO SEEM TO BE ON A GRADUAL INCREASE. AS WILMA PASSES OVER THE LOOP CURRENT TODAY...AND WHILE THE WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH... SOME INTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL... ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE OVERESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND AS WILMA CROSSES FLORIDA... SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD REACH FLORIDA AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 22.7N 85.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 23.7N 84.5W 95 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 25.8N 81.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 29.5N 77.3W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 35.1N 72.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1200Z 45.0N 64.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1200Z 48.5N 55.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1200Z 50.0N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
