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| #532775 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:50 PM 08.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 700 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012 ...ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LASHING THE STATE OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 91.5W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADARS FROM MEXICO TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION... ACCOMPANIED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND LATER ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CIUDAD DEL CARMEN REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H AND A GUST TO 58 MPH...93 KM/H. SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING AT OFFSHORE OIL RIGS NORTH OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 12 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
