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| #532806 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:26 PM 08.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012 ...ERNESTO FINALLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS STORM GETTING STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 91.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM N OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA * EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADARS FROM MEXICO TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION... ACCOMPANIED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO...VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND NORTHERN OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
