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| #532917 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:41 PM 09.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 100 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012 ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING ANTICIPATED AS ERNESTO SKIRTS THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 94.6W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE ERNESTO HAS BEEN SKIRTING THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF COATZACOALCOS. AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST. ERNESTO HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GENERAL SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER NORTH OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
