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| #532979 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 09.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 400 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF COATZACOALCOS AROUND 1800 UTC WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THEN... ERNESTO HAS MOVED FARTHER INLAND AND BEGUN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER NORTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND INTERACT WITH HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. ERNESTO IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA...OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL FORCE ERNESTO ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO. ALTHOUGH ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 3 DAYS OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 18.1N 95.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/0600Z 18.0N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 17.5N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
