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| #53300 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:43 PM 23.Oct.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...ALPHA EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF HAITI LATER TODAY...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR. IF SURVIVES...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE BACK OVER WATER LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ALFA COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...19.8 N... 72.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
