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| #533152 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 10.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. ERNESTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/11...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 36 TO 48 HR. PLEASE SEE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS POSSIBILITY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER ERNESTO DISSIPATES...AND THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.0N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1800Z 17.9N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND REMNANT LOW 24H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
