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| #533475 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 11.Aug.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012 500 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012 THERE HAS BEEN SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND IT IS UNCLEAR IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS DUE TO THE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A 30 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A RAPID 275/21. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION NEAR THE 48 HR POINT. GIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 14.0N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 14.2N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 14.4N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 14.6N 67.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
