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| #534601 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 16.Aug.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE. GORDON SHOULD BE MOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND WITHIN A LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STORM CLOSE TO OR BECOMING A HURRICANE WITHIN 72 HRS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FROM 48-72 HR...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. GORDON APPEARS TO HAVE RECURVED AND IS MOVING ABOUT 015/12 KT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...GORDON SHOULD INTERACT MORE WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK IN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION. WHILE GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 DAYS... MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL AT THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 32.2N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 33.5N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 34.6N 50.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 34.5N 46.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 34.4N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 35.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 36.8N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0600Z 39.5N 20.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
