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| #534843 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 17.Aug.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 500 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2012 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF GORDON HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC. MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF WESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN A BIT...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 55 KT. A SMALL TROUGH SEEN TO THE NORTHWEST OF GORDON IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES COULD HAVE HELPED CAUSED THE RECENT INCREASE IN SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH WEAKENING...WHICH MIGHT ALLOW THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AGAIN. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE STILL PREDICT GORDON WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THOUGH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS SOLUTION. THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS GORDON BRIEFLY AS A HURRICANE. THE NEW FORECAST IS GENERALLY BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SHADED TOWARD THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. GORDON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT ABOUT 16 KT. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...GORDON WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL SOUTHWARD CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WHILE GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...A COMBINATION OF COLD WATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND A NEARBY BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD PROMOTE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM NEAR OR BEFORE IT REACHES THOSE ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 34.6N 48.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 34.5N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 34.2N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 34.2N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 34.7N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 37.0N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0600Z 39.0N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0600Z 40.0N 17.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
