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| #535086 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 AM 18.Aug.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012 100 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...DISORGANIZED HELENE NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 96.4W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HELENE WILL MOVE INLAND IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE HELENE MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE STORM MOVES INLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL...HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO FROM NORTHERN VERACRUZ...ACROSS SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS STATES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN |
