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| #535121 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 AM 18.Aug.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 500 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2012 GORDON HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...AND RECENT TRMM AND SSM/I OVERPASSES SHOWED AN EYE HAS DEVELOPED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 KT AT 0600 UTC...AND AN AMSU ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS AT 0454 UTC WAS 64 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA AND THE SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...GORDON IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/16. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES SHOULD STEER GORDON EASTWARD TO EAST- NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR. AFTER THAT...A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF GORDON. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GORDON TO REMAIN A HURRICANE TODAY. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR... DECREASING SSTS...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 34.0N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 34.0N 37.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 34.5N 33.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 35.3N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 36.5N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 38.5N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z 38.5N 16.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
