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| #535125 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 AM 18.Aug.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HELENE HAS BEEN MINIMAL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HELENE IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THAT. SINCE THE CYCLONE ONLY HAS A SHORT TIME BEFORE IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH LAND...STRENGTHENING IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...STEADY WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW ARE ANTICIPATED. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HELENE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND. SMOOTHING THROUGH THE WOBBLES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/6. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER HELENE NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK SHOULD TAKE HELENE INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. AFTER LANDFALL...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 21.6N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 21.9N 97.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 19/0600Z 22.4N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1800Z 23.1N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN |
