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| #535261 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:20 PM 18.Aug.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012 HELENE IS MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT BASED ON A 1554 UTC ASCAT PASS...WHICH BARELY SHOWED 20-25 KT OF WIND OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE LOSING SOME DEFINITION...AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR SOON IF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS HELENE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HELENE HAS SLOWED DOWN NOW THAT IT IS OVER LAND...AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 295/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO RUN INTO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOON...AND IT IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 22.6N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/0600Z 22.9N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
