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| #535469 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 19.Aug.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 500 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012 GORDON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS DEEP CONVECTION IS ERODING SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED. HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS STILL BEEN APPARENT ON RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 75 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR...AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. MODEL FIELDS AND FSU PHASE SPACE DIGRAMS SUGGEST THAT GORDON WILL BE POST-TROPICAL BY 36 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN SHEAR APART AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/18. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO OF GORDON INTERACTING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A BIT MORE OF A POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 36 HOURS...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLES...A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 36.1N 27.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 37.3N 24.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 38.8N 21.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 39.2N 19.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 21/1800Z 39.2N 18.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 22/1800Z 39.0N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
