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| #5359 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:44 AM 16.Aug.2004) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052004 0900Z MON AUG 16 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 67.2W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 67.2W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 66.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N 70.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 35SE 35SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 74.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.7N 78.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.3N 81.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 55SE 55SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.5N 94.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 67.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART |
