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| #5360 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:44 AM 16.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004 METEOSAT-8 INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE-INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW THAT DANIELLE HAS ELONGATED A BIT IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH DIRECTION. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS CONTRACTED TO LESS THAN 10 NM AS THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN AT T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KTS FOR THE INITIAL TIME PERIOD. DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG AT 310/15...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS MOTION. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTH AND RECURVE DANIELLE TOWARD THE AZORES BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE GFS STILL REMAINS TO THE LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE GROUP... HOWEVER THE NOGAPS TRACK HAS MOVED IN WITH THE REST OF THE PACK. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES DANIELLE WILL TURN NORTH AND EVENTUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS CONSENSUS...SO THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 24 HOUR...SO THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KTS OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST LATER AS DANIELLE EDGES CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...SO THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING. FORECASTER STEWART/SISKO FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.2N 36.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 18.7N 37.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.7N 39.2W 85 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 22.8N 40.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 24.9N 40.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 29.2N 40.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 32.8N 38.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 35.1N 33.7W 45 KT |
