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| #536344 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 23.Aug.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1100 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ISAAC HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISAAC REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE CENTER IN AIRCRAFT DATA IS NORTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTED BY THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A COMBINATION OF FLIGHT-LEVEL...DROPSONDE...AND SFMR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NEAR 35 KT. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF ISAAC IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12 HR AGO. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ISAAC SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR... STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD APPROACH A WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CURRENT POSITION AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THOUGH...THAT NEAR THE 96 HR POINT THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA...AND AT 120 HR THEY ARE BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THUS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO FLORIDA. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC SUGGESTS THAT ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WHICH COULD OCCUR IF THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER THAT...PASSAGE OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE OF STRENGTH FROM 48-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE FORECAST TRACK BEING A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAN BEFORE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IT IS WELL ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.6N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.1N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 16.9N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 18.0N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 19.3N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 22.0N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1200Z 24.5N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 28/1200Z 27.5N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
