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| #536409 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 23.Aug.2012) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 500 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012 ...ISAAC CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 67.1W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN... SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN... SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...MOVER NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON FRIDAY...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND BUOY DATA IS IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1004.1 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY FRIDAY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BY SATURDAY. RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. STORM SURGE IN PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
