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| #536672 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 24.Aug.2012) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 2100 UTC FRI AUG 24 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...FLORIDA BAY...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO * ANDROS ISLAND * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS * JAMAICA * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH * FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 71.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......160NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 250SE 60SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 71.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 71.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.7N 73.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.7N 76.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.4N 78.6W...NEAR COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 23.9N 80.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 29.5N 86.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 32.0N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 71.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
