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| #536695 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 24.Aug.2012) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012 ...ISAAC TEMPORARILY SLOWS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 72.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO * ANDROS ISLAND * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS * JAMAICA * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH * FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A FASTER FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT... AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS JAMAICA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER ANDROS ISLAND BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
