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| #536722 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 24.Aug.2012) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 0300 UTC SAT AUG 25 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF ON THE EAST COAST WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET. THE CAYMAN ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO * THE BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD * FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS * JAMAICA * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 72.5W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......200NE 90SE 75SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 250SE 60SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 72.5W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.4N 74.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 75SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.7N 76.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 100SE 75SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.4N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...200NE 110SE 75SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 24.9N 81.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 75SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.1N 84.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 130SE 75SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 30.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 32.5N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
