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| #536851 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 25.Aug.2012) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012 ...CENTER OF ISAAC NEAR EASTERN CUBA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 74.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO SEBASTIAN INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS. THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF * ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO * THE BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...5 TO 7 FT SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
