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| #537252 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 PM 26.Aug.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012 ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FOUND THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THERE IS STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE SYSTEM...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY AS ISAAC MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE...AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE MODEL SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 24.2N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 25.1N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 26.3N 85.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 27.7N 87.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 28.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 30.7N 89.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1800Z 34.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
