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| #537349 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 26.Aug.2012) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012 ...ISAAC FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 82.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. * FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA EARLY MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT... MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES... 335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED AT OPA LOCKA AIRPORT NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... * NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...6 TO 12 FT * REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 7 FT * FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT * CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE |
