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| #538017 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 28.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012 CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED EARLIER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER...THE CENTER HAS NOW REFORMED CLOSER TO THE COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY FROM MET-9 SHOWS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IF THE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS AN UPPER-LOW MOVES WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF NORTH AMERICA. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ITS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT...AS SHOWN BY THE GFS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/09...AS THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BY 72 HOURS AND A NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AFTER THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 23.8N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 24.1N 45.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 24.3N 47.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 24.6N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 25.3N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 27.5N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 32.5N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 40.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
